此轮大调整对资金密集型企业将是致命打击
国家统计局副局长许宪春日前表示：“中国经济可能已经进入调整周期，未来几年，我国经济增长速度将呈现出逐步回落的过程。”很多机构都认为2007年很可能是这轮经济增长的峰值。今年中国经济增速可能出现“拐点”。但如果仔细分析中国经济此轮繁荣周期的根源，就会发现这种看法很难站得住脚。
拐点观站不住脚
诸多机构认为2007年中国经济出现峰值的一个根本原因，就在于中央经济工作会议在2007年底做出的“2008年中国经济要防止经济出现过热，出现全面通胀”的决定，以及相应的配套宏观调控政策。这些政策包括从紧货币政策、行业和价格管制政策。
应该说，这些紧缩措施还是有力度的，尤其是货币紧缩措施，2007年四季度信贷零增长之后，股市、楼市立即出现大调整，同时实体经济领域企业普遍感到资金紧张。至今，严格的信贷控制政策，使得股市出现大幅跳水，中小企业满地找钱。今年5月份CPI也第一次出现放缓的迹象。
但货币紧缩措施只是暂时有效。因为自2004年以来的经济繁荣周期背后的信用膨胀，来自于联系汇率政策下的人民币币值低估。因此，社会总需求膨胀的根源在外而非国内金融系统自身。注水的美元大举流入中国，导致外汇占款和外储长期居高不下，这是目前国内货币供给过多的根源。
当货币紧缩导致国内资产价格缩水之时，美联储却大幅减息，人民币币值本来已经被大幅低估，这时人民币和美元资产的利差又再次放大了。但2008年上半年的“油荒”、“电荒”以及一路飙升的PPI指数，都说明社会总需求还是压不住。其原因在于滚滚而来的热钱和国内三月份新政府换届掀起的基建高潮。因此，今年要出现经济拐点，可能性实在很小。
要出现拐点，首先就得人民币大幅升值。只有独立汇率政策，才能有独立的货币政策，这时央行方可大幅加息，将实际存款利率转为正。也就是说，中央必须变数量型调控工具为价格型调控手段，我们才能看到经济大调整到来。
中上游企业受冲击更大
其实，2007年四季度开始的调控政策导致经济出现短暂调整，已给企业事先展示了未来的经济走势了，因为经济调整的首要手段就是加息。对资金密集型行业，如房地产业将是致命性打击，尤其是负债率过高的房地产企业，倒闭几乎成必然。在此轮大调整中，走背运的还是那些扩张过猛、资金链条绷得嘎嘎作响的企业。这些企业遇到大幅加息，廉价资金来源一旦不再，几乎将瞬间关门。
但经济调整不是世界末日。经济系统资源在不同部门的重新配置，原先由于廉价资金而繁荣的中上游经济产业部门，如能源、采矿挖掘业、房地产业，国民经济引擎灯将熄火，而下游产业部门，像日用消费品行业，如家电制造、食品医药等行业企业日子则未必难过，因为消费将取代投资和出口作为经济引擎的话，最先受益的就是这些行业企业。这些领域的企业甚至可能借助这个艰难时期进行行业大洗牌，最后脱颖而出，成为行业巨头。所谓危机，对于中上游企业确实是危险，但对于下游消费品行业来说，却是机会了。（文/徐斌）
译文:
It is hard to see economic growth reaching a turning point in 2008
This cycle of restructuring will be the fatal blow for capital intensive companies.
A few days ago, Deputy Commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics of China Xu Xianchun said “The Chinese economy may have already entered a period of restructuring. In the next few years, the speed of our country’s economic growth will gradually start to slow down.” Many organisations believe that 2007 was most likely the peak of economic growth in the current cycle. This year, economic growth might reach a ‘turning point’. However, if we carefully analyse the origins of this period of prosperity for China in the current economic cycle, this type of view does not seem to stand up
The ‘turning point’ view does not stand up to scrutiny.
Many organisations believe that a key reason why the Chinese economy seemed to reach a peak in 2007 was due to the “In 2008 the Chinese economy must be prevented from overheating and from the onset of inflation” decision of the Central Economic Working Conference at the end of the year. Another key factor was the accompanying macro-economic regulatory policies. These include tight monetary policy, industry restrictions and price controls.
It should be said that these measures aimed at squeezing the economy are quite powerful, especially the monetary squeezes. Since the increase in ‘zero credit’ starting in the fourth quarter of 2007, the stock market and the housing market immediately started to undergo significant readjustment. At the same time, in the broader economy businesses universally felt under great financial pressure. Up till now the strict credit control policy has caused the stock market to plunge, and has left SMEs1 desperately searching for funding . In May this year the CPI2 showed signs of easing off for the first time.
However, tight monetary policy measures will only have a temporary effect. This is because the period of economic prosperity since 2004, was due to credit inflation as a result of the government’s linked exchange rate policy which undervalued the renminbi. So the [main source of] demand-pull inflationary pressure comes from abroad and not from the domestic financial system itself. The flood of US dollars into China has created and maintained huge foreign currency reseves. This is the source of the current excess in the domestic money supply.
When the monetary squeezes cause a reduction in domestic asset prices, the US Federal Reserve will [greatly] lower interest rates. Currently, the renminbi is already greatly undervalued so this will cause the gap between the value of the dollar and the RMB to widen once again. However, in the latter half of 2008 the ‘oil drought’, ‘electricity drought’ and a dramatic rise in the PPI index3 all show that aggregate social demand4 is still not under control. This is due to a surge in flows of hot money5 into China and the wave of infrastructure and capital construction started by the government in March. Therefore the emerging turnaround in the economy this year, will perhaps only a minor one.
If the economy is to reach a turning point the value of the RMB must rise significantly. Only when China has its own, independent exchange rate policy can it have independent monetary policy. This time, the People's Bank of China can raise interest rates, making the real savings rate turn positive. The People’s Bank should also switch from using [monetary policy for] quantity controls, and move towards price controls6. Only then can we see a significant restructuring in the economy.
The top Chinese companies have taken the biggest hits
The regulatory policies put in place in the fourth quarter of 2007 caused the economy to adjust temporarily. This has given businesses early indications of future economic trends since the primary means of economic regulation is raising interest rates. This will be the fatal blow for capital-intensive industries such as property firms, especially those property firms with an excessive debt to net worth ratio. Bankruptcy will be almost inevitable. In this round of major economic restructuring the businesses having a tough time are those which expanded too quickly, with tight working capital7. When interest rates are raised, these businesses will be deprived of their cheap source of funding, and almost all of them will close down in no time at all.
Despite all this, economic restructuring is not the end of the world. The resources for the economic system [with the restructuring of different sectors of the economy], originally came from the cheaply funded, but prosperous, property and industry sectors. These include leading businesses without which the economy would grind to a halt8 such as the energy firms, mining and excavation and property firms. However, smaller production firms such as those producing everyday consumer goods, domestic appliances, food and medical products, were not necessarily in difficulty, since consumer demand has superceded investment and exports are the driving force of the economy, hence these were the first firms to benefit. Businesses in these areas can even take advantage of these difficult times to carry out industry reshuffling, finally coming to the fore and achieving great success. The so-called ‘crisis’ is a threat to China’s top businesses, but for smaller firms dealing in consumer goods, it is actually a great opportunity. (Author/ Xu Bin)
Notes: 1 SMEs: Small and medium sized enterprises
2 CPI: Consumer Price Index, a measure of inflation
3 PPI: Producer Price Index
4 Aggregate social demand: Aggregate demand less government spending i.e. consumption+investment+exports
5 Hot money: A inflow of funds in order take advantage of relatively high interest rates
6 To switch from controlling the money supply to the price of money.
7 Literally: Firms with a creaking capital chain, i.e. facing huge pressure or strain on working capital
8 国民经济引擎灯将熄火Literally: The engine of the economy would stop working