牛，逛到债市那个园子去啃草了。
上周末美国及欧洲央行关于低利率还会维持相当时间的承诺，刺激了国债市场，美国、欧洲、英国的国债价格一齐上升。美国十年期国债收益率下降到3.45%，德国国债至3.9%，英国国债3.62%。央行的最新讯息初步稳定住了市场对央行很快推出量化宽松政策的担心，稳定住了市场利率。
美国的住房数据与耐用消费品订单，以及德国商业信心均远好过分析员的预期，但是股市对此反应不大。全周股市略升，中国A股再次包尾。糖价涨到二十八年新高，铅、铜、大豆价格也表现神勇。石油价格回落，美国天然气价格则受供应影响跌到七年低位。
上周强劲的经济数据，确认了全球经济在今年第三季走出衰退的态势，GDP可望进一步反弹。不过必须看到，汽车和房屋销售的上升，与政府补贴有直接关系，今后几个季度的增长未必有第三季度那么亮丽。笔者相信，衰退的势力在减弱，但是上升的动力并不强劲，而且变数颇多，而且就业与信贷的好转滞后于GDP的复苏。
本周三，欧盟区第二季度GDP预计环比为-0.1%，同比为-4.7%（vs上期-2.5%及-4.9）。周二美国八月ISM估计重上50关口（50.5 vs 上期48.9）。同日欧洲公布八月PMI（47.9 vs 46.3），澳大利亚也在当日议息。最后，日本大选结果可能对日元汇率有影响（上周日元上升，反映市场对民主党获大胜的预期）。
(本栏每星期日在此博客登出，周一早上于CCTV2证券时间出现。以上观点仅为个人对市场的看法，并非任何投资劝诱或建议)
译文:
The central banks have stabilised the interest rate and subsidy support has started to recover
The securities market is currently more like cattle grazing on the grass than a raging bull1.
Last weekend, the agreement by the central banks of the USA and Europe to maintain low interest rates for an appropriate time, acted to encourage the government securities markets. In the USA, Europe and the UK the price of government securities rose simultaneously. In the US, the yield on 10-year government securities fell to 3.45%, in Germany they fell to 3.9% and in the UK they fell to 3.62%. The information recently released by the central banks initially eased the market uncertainty and unease regarding the sudden release of large scale loose monetary policies. This stabilised the market interest rates.
US housing data and consumer durable orders, as well as German business confidence were all much better than analysts had predicted. However, the reaction of the stock market to this has not been significant. The stock markets have only risen slightly during the whole week, with the Chinese “A” Share market (quoted on the Shanghai Stock Exchange) lagging behind. The price of sugar rose to a 28-year high, whilst the prices of lead, copper and soya beans are showing great market strength. The price of oil has fallen back, and the price of US natural gas has tumbled to a 7-year low owing to supply-side effects.
Last week's strong economic data has confirmed that the global economy will emerge from a state of recession in the third quarter of this year. GDP growth looks set to bounce back. However, we will need to see whether the rise in vehicle and property sales is directly related to government subsidies. In the next few quarters, economic growth may not look as good as that of the third quarter this year. I2 believe that the momentum of the recession is weakening, but the strength of the recovery is weak and quite variable. Moreover, the turnaround in employment and [availability of] credit is lagging behind GDP recovery.
This Wednesday, the EU’s second quarter GDP predicted chain index3 was -0.1%, a fall of 4.7% from the same time last year (compared to -2.5 and -4.9% from the last period). On Tuesday, the US August ISM4 index estimate climbed back up above 50 (50.5 compared to 48.9 in the previous period). On the same day Europe released its August PMI5 figures (47.9 compared to 46.3) and Australia also released figures. In Japan, the results of the general elections may have an effect on the exchange rate of the yen (last Sunday the value of the yen rose, reflecting the market’s prediction of a landslide victory for the Democratic Party of Japan).
(This column is posted on this blog every Sunday and is shown on CCTV2 on Monday morning during ‘Securities Hour’. This is only an individual opinion of the market and is certainly not any investment advice or a suggestion).
Notes: 1 A metaphor. i.e. the demand for securities is weak and the market is stagnant.
2 笔者：A Chinese expression meaning 'the author' i.e. 'I'.
3 A statistical measurement comparing a value with that of the previous period.
4 The Institute of Supply Management Index (ISM), used to assess the strength of manufacturing.
5 The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), used to assess the strength of manufacturing. Essentially the same as the ISM index.