这几个月，世界各地的经济数据纷纷爆出春芽，在亚洲则简直可以用“春意闹”来形容。
德国、法国和日本经济分别于第二季度步出衰退，美国和欧元区GDP也预计在第三季度转为正增长。不过这些与亚洲区的增长相比，则显得小巫见大巫了。以年率折算的GDP环比增长（annualized quarter on quarter GDP growth），在已公布的亚洲国家中普遍录得双位数的增长（即如果经济维持第二季度增长的势头，全年经济增长会达到双位数），新加坡增长高达21%，中国也有15%，韩国、香港个个生猛。
亚洲是否上了经济复苏的特快列车？答案是，上了快车但未必是特快。第二季度经济的一大特点，是库存重建。雷曼倒闭之后，世界金融体系一度濒于崩溃，资金市场更曾断流。极度恐慌下，企业抱着“现金为王”的宗旨，尽量使用库存而不订新货，导致战后最剧烈的一次库存下降。等人们心态从震惊中摆脱出来、资金流动性得以恢复时，库存水平逐步升回正常水平，于是生产量大过消费量。亚洲是世界的加工厂，也成了库存回补的最大得益者，不过第二季度的生产数据就未必能一直维持下去。
然而，亚洲的经济基本面是健全的，明显地好过美欧。亚洲的银行大多没有染指有毒证券，因此在金融海啸中逃过一劫。亚洲的财富受到一定冲击，但是受伤不深。亚洲的超高储蓄率、巨额的外汇储备在危机中稳定了经济，为复苏奠定下良好的基础。
另外，亚洲多数国家在危机期间，纷纷推出财政刺激方案。除了中国的方案外，其它各国的规模不能与美英相比，但是由于无需拯救银行，亚洲的救市对实体经济帮助似乎更大。
这轮衰退复苏中，国家大致可以分成三等：银行资本金与个人财务需要重组的（如么美国、英国），复苏力度最差，属三等。无需去杠杆但内需并不强劲的（亚洲多数国家在此列），复苏较快，不过力度不强，当列二等。能够增杠杆又有内需的（如中国），则复苏最快、势头最猛，乃头等。
资本市场的升温和全球流动性的重临，为亚洲经济提供了新的动力。可是笔者相信，本地区经济的全面复苏仍有赖于出口回暖。美国与欧洲GDP增长在复苏，但是“无就业、弱消费”复苏会持续一段时间，这也许意味着亚洲的“弱出口”复苏还会持续一段时间。基数效应令令下半年的出口数字好看一点，不过笔者更关心广东和华东地区出口企业重新招收民工的消息。
本文原载于今周刊，为个人观点，并非任何劝诱或投资建议。
译文:
The Asian economy is recovering
In the last few months, economic data all over the world showed that the spring shoots of national economies had begun sprouting out one by one (i.e. they emerged from recession). In Asia, the phrase ‘Spring Awakening’ could be used to describe it.
In the second quarter the economies of Germany, France and Japan stepped up out of recession. The USA and Euro Zone economies are also forecast to turn around in the third quarter, achieving real GDP growth. However, compared to Asian economic growth it pales into insignificance1. Using annualized quarter on quarter GDP growth, in Asian countries that have already released data, double figure increases were generally recorded (assuming the economy continues to grow at the same pace as in the second quarter, the annual economic growth rate would reach double figures). Growth in Singapore reached 21%, while China achieved growth of 15%. Growth in South Korea and Hong Kong was also impressive.
Has Asia boarded the express train to economic recovery? The answer is that it has boarded the train but the speed is still not express. The second quarter economic figures were for the most part due to stock replenishing. After the collapse of Lehmann Brothers, the global financial system was once close to freefall. The capital market was even more sluggish. With a great degree of panic, businesses took a ‘cash is king’ approach, using reserves as much as possible and not ordering new stock. This led to the most acute reduction in stocks since the War. When people’s minds emerge free from shock and financial liquidity is able to recover, reserve stocks can gradually begin to climb back up to normal levels. As a result production now exceeds consumption. Asia is the world’s factory, and has become the largest beneficiary of stock replenishing. However, the production figures for the second quarter are still unsustainable.
However, the foundation of the Asian economy is solid. This is clearly better than in Europe. Most of the Asian banks have not been involved with bad debts and risky securities, so have managed to escape from the disaster of the financial crisis2. Asian prosperity has certainly been hit, but the damage is light. Asia’s super-high savings rate and huge foreign currency reserves, acted to stabilize the economy during the crisis, establishing a good foundation for economic recovery.
In addition, during the crisis period, many Asian countries successively rolled out fiscal stimulus plans. Apart from the Chinese plan, the scale of all the other countries’ plans could not match those of the UK and the USA. However, since there was no need to bail out the banks, the Asian economic bailout plans seemed to give greater assistance to the economy as a whole.
In this cycle of recession and recovery, countries can roughly be separated into three classes:
Class 3: The capital of the banks, and the finances of individuals needs to be reorganized, so the ability to recover is weak (E.g. the USA, UK)
Class 2: There is no need for leveraging3, but domestic demand is not strong. Recovery speed is quite fast but lacking in vigour. (E.g. most of the Asian countries)
Class 1: Can increase leveraging and domestic demand is good. Recovery speed is quickest with great impetuous. This is the top class. (E.g. China)
The capital market acceleration and the resurgence in global financial liquidity has provided new impetuous for the Asian economy. However, I4 believe that the full recovery of this economic area still depends on a resurgence in exports. Although in the USA and Europe, GDP growth is recovering, the recovery from “no jobs, weak consumption” is likely to continue for a while. This also means that Asia’s recovery from “weak exports” is also likely to continue for a while. In the latter half of the year, the multiplier effect will make the export figures look a little better. However, I am even more concerned about news regarding export businesses in Guangdong and Eastern China hiring new workers .
This article was originally published in Today Magazine. It is only an individual opinion and certainly not advice or an investment suggestion.
Notes: 1 小巫见大巫: A Chinese idiom literally meaning 'the small witch sees the big witch'. I.e. greatly inferior, small by comparison.
2 金融海啸 Literally: financial tsunami
3 Leveraging: A process by which the return on an investment can be increased, usually by borrowing to invest.
4 笔者: A formal expression meaning the author.