中国经济在奥运后之后，会不会遭遇大的麻烦？这个问题，很早便在日本、台湾被提出，而近来更普遍为欧美投资者所关注。

北京奥运会的总投资规模，可能超过四百亿美元，这个数字超出过去一○八年现代奥运会历史上的所有举办城市的所有投资之总和。四百亿美元无疑是一个大数目， 不过分散在四年投资，每年不过一百亿美元，中国经济GDP超过三?三万亿美元，北京市的投资仅占全国总投资的一?八％。在奥运二○○八年八月以前，中国经 济增长不是靠北京的奥运投资撑起来的，之后也不会因没有奥运投资而垮下去。从投资意义上看，北京的体育场馆、酒店道路对中国经济的实际推动作用并不大，因 此奥运之后经济出现急跌的机会也不大。

事实上中国经济的增长风险，似乎已经减少。最近去过上海的人，发现那里到处都是地铁工程；去过重庆的人，发现那里到处都是道路、桥梁建设。中国省市两级的 地方政府刚完成换届过程，新上任的省长、市长不约而同地要求在经济上大干快上，一轮新的基础建设投资已经展开。中央政府在口头上仍然坚持从紧的货币政策， 但是新增贷款数量在今年二、三月已恢复到每月二千五百亿人民币，大致与去年平均月借贷款相同，但明显高过二○○七年最后三个月平均每月九百一十亿的低迷水 平。四月的新增贷款更超过四千六百亿人民币，中国的宏观调控其实已名存实亡了。信贷环境正常化，是推动地方基础建设重新上马的重要因素。

地方政府五年一次的换届，例必带来投资反弹。一九九三年如此，一九九八年（尽管遭遇亚洲金融风暴）如此，二○○三年（尽管遭遇ＳＡＲＳ）也是如此。笔者相信在二○○八年，地方主导的基础设施投资一定不会少。其实三月份开始，地方政府的招商、投资活动明显在加速。

中国的出口，相信在今年很难不受美国衰退的影响，何况下半年还有欧洲、日本经济放缓。事实上近年来中国的出口企业，已经深受人民币升值加速、工人工资激 增、材料能源价格暴涨的影响，去年推出的削减出口退税、两税合一带来更沉重的经营负担。今年新实施的劳动合同法，对劳动密集型企业冲击甚大，劳资关系恶 化，出口业的确面临严峻挑战。笔者估计，广东省的出口企业中，三年内会有三分之一关闭或迁出，而广东省出口占中国总出口的三分之一。今年中国的出口增长可 能仅有单位数字，为二○○一年来之首次。

不过内需增长至少可以部分抵消出口产业的负面因素。除去基础设施建设，中国的消费增长也在加速。今年第一季度零售消费增长接近２１％，为十年以来最高。服 务消费和农村部消费，正成为带动整体个人消费的两大主力。而且政府目前的负债比率已经降到近十年的最低。如果有需要，北京完全有能力通过财政扩张政策，抵 挡可能出现的增长失速。在亚洲金融风暴期间，朱镕基便是依靠凯恩斯主义财政政策，度过需求不足难关的。笔者不相信中国经济会在奥运会之后失速。

奥运之后，政府在推出新政策时，顾忌会少一些，所以不排除一些奥运之前推出的政策出台。但是政策推出一定有其目的性，从宏观调控到房地产政策，其实并未因为奥运而缓行。同时北京在新政策推出前，笔者相信一定会考虑国际环境和国内增长风险。

中国的股市、房市，是经济中最弱的一环，也是最容易出事的地方。股市、房市在二○○六至二○○七年的暴涨，的确加大了资产价格暴跌的可能性。不过股市、楼 市在过去一年的持续下跌中，在相当程度上释放出了调整的动能，减少了进一步爆跌的风险。值得注意的是，无论是股市还是楼市，北京官员的言论最近均由吹冷风 改为吹暖风。至少在政策层面上，北京再度强力打压股价、楼价的可能性不大。

与股市相比，房地产市场的风险可能更大一些。自去年第四季度以来，房屋销情急转直下，开发商的售房回款大幅下降。在银行贷款基本断绝，Ａ股集资受到政策性 歧视之下，开发商将希望全部放在香港上市上。当国际金融市场动荡不已，Ｈ股ＩＰＯ难产时，相信一批开发商都面临着资金链断裂的威胁。笔者估计不少开发商熬 不过今后的六个月。但是整体经济处于负利率时期，流动性大量过剩，因此其它公司愿意趁机吸纳土地储备。相信资金短缺的开发商，可以通过卖地度过财政困难， 房价不至于因此大跌。

奥运会后中国经济面临的最大挑战可能并非增长失速，而是通货膨胀升温。食品通胀的最坏时期，应该在二○○八年上半年。随着雪灾影响的消失和统计基数的提 高，食品价格应该出现回落。不过价格从来是易升难降，食品价格的回落速度不会快，同时国际粮食价格飙升也会影响国内粮价以及价格预期。

最大的担心来自工资的上升。在已知的第一季度上市企业的季报中，工资成本激增几乎成为例牌。而且劳工短缺明显由制造业向服务业转型。笔者相信，在通胀预期 加剧之下，工资上涨已成普遍趋势，而随后出现全面通长的可能性甚高。除了食品价格高企，遍地出现﹁油荒﹂、﹁电荒﹂外，一些十几年都未涨过价的产品（如冰 箱、可口可乐）开始涨价。成本压力，似乎在通过各种渠道拉动价格上升。

中国在二○○九年出现双位数通货膨胀，并非天方夜谭。这种发展暂时还不是笔者目前认为最可能发生的状况，不过出现此状况的风险与日俱增。这个可能是奥运会后，中国经济面临的最大挑战。

 

（本文原载于财讯月刊（台湾），为个人观点，并非投资建议或劝诱）

 

After the Olympic Games ,whether will  China encounter big troubles in economy? This question which was asked early in Japan and in Taiwan has been paid more attention to by European countries and America nowadays.  

The total investment scale of Beijing Olympic Games may be over 40 billion dollars which exceeds the whole investment of all host countries in the history of modern Olympic Games(108years).It’s no doubt that 40 billion dollars is a large number of money, but the average investment is just 10 billion dollars if the total number is scattered to four years.China's GDP is over 3.3 billion dollars,and the investment of Beijing is just 18% of the total investment the country.China's economy increase did not rely on the investment of Beijing Olympic Games,and it will not turn to a bad condition because of the lack of the investment of the Olympic Games.From the view of investment significance,the stadiums and hotel road have little to do with the China's economy,so the possibility of emerging quick decrease is little.

In fact, it seems that the risk of China’s economy has reduced. The people who has been to Shanghai may discover that there are metro projects everywhere, while the people who has been to Chongqing can notice that there are highway and bridge works everywhere. The provincial and municipal levels of government in China has recently finished the term changing . The new mayors and governors demand to go all out soon in economy, and coincidentally a new round of infrastructure investment has been launched. The central government has been still keeping the tight monetary policy in word. However, in February and March of this year, the amount of new loans has recovered to 250 billion RMB per month, which is roughly equal to the average month loans last year, but which is higher than the depressed level in the last 3 months of 2007(91billion per month). Even the new loans in April exceeds 460 billions, and the normalization of credit environment is the major factor to stimulate the restarting local infrastructure construction.

There must be a investment rebounding for the local government term changing of five years, and the same case occurred in 1993,1998(in spite of encountering the Asian financial storm),and 2003(despite suffering from SARS). The writer believes that the investment of infrastructure facilities must not be little in 2008. In fact, the local government’s activities of attracting investment has been speeding up since March.

It’s believed that China’s export is hard to avoid the influence from recession in America, and in the second half year, the development speed of the economy in Europe and in Japan also decrease. Actually these years China’s export enterprises have been deeply influenced by the speeding up of RMB appreciation, the increasing of worker’s wages and the skyrocketing of materials and energy price, while the reduction of export rebates and the tax integration system put last year has brought more serious running burden. The implement of Labor Contract Law this year strikes the labor-intensive enterprises and the labor-capital relation has been deteriorating, so there are serious challenges for export industry. The writer estimates that in Guangdong province, where the export amount is one third of the total export amount of China, one third of export industries will close up or move out within 3 years. This year the export increase of China may be only single-digit lever which is the first time since 2001.

However, he growth of domestic demand at least can partly counteract negative factors from export industries. Besides infrastructure construction ,China’s consuming increase is also speeding up. In the first quarter of this year, the increase of retailing consuming is next to 21%,which is he highest lever from 10 years ago.The consumption of service industry and agriculture department has been the two main forces during the whole personal consumption. Moreover, nowadays the debt ratio of the government has reduced to the lowest level since nearly 10 years. If needed, Beijing is capable of passing the fiscal expansion policy to resist to possible stall of economy increase. During the Asian financial storm, Zhu Rongji got through the hard time because of demand shortage by the Keynesian fiscal policy. The writer doesn’t believe that China’s economy will face the stall of increase after the Olympic Games.

After the Olympic Games ,there is little concern when the government put forward new policies, so we can’t think that there is no possibility for government to put forward policies which are carried out before the Olympic Games. However, the policies must have its purposefulness. From the macro-control to the real estate policy in Beijing, the writer believes that the government must consider international environment and the risk of domestic increase.

China’s stock market and house market is the weakest link of economy and is the most likely to be involved in an accident. From 2006 to 2007, stock market and house market skyrocketed, which undoubtedly expanded the possibility of slump in assets price. But, the continuous slump in stock market and house market during the last years, to some extent, give out the kinetic energy of the adjustment, and reduce the risk of farther slump. What deserves notice is that no matter stock market or house market. Recently, the observations of officials in Beijing has changed their views from making a pitch for them to take nonsense. At least in view of the policy, there is little possibility for Beijing to strongly swamp the stock price and house price.

Compared with stock market, the risk in house market must be greater. Since the fourth quarter, the selling of house takes a sudden turn for the funds discriminated by certain policy, the de draw their whole hopes all are faced with threat from the rupture of financial chain. The writer holds the estimation that many developers can get through the situation in the next 6 months. But macro-economy at a negative interest period, the liquidity of overflows, so other companies are willing to seize the opportunity to absorb land reserves. It is believed that developers who suffer from capital shortage can over ca financial difficulties by selling land while the house price will not reduce in a large scale.

After the Olympic Games, the biggest economic challenge China faces may not be the stall of increase, but the acceleration of inflation. The worst period of food inflation me be the first half year in 2008. with the disappearance of the snowstorm’s influence, and the improvement of statistic base number, the food price must fall. However, price easily rises, but hardly drops. So the price will not fall quickly, while the surge of international food prices will affect domestic food price and price expectations.

After the Olympic Games, the biggest concern comes from the rising income. In the seasonal report of the first quarter from listed companies, the acceleration of wage cost almost becomes the routine. Moreover, the problem of labor shortage is obviously transforming from manufacturing to service industry. The writer believes that under the intensification of inflation expectation, the increase of wage has been a general trend, and accordingly the possibility of emerging overall increase is rather great. Besides the high price of food, oil shortage and electronic shortage, some products (such as refrigerator and coca cola) which had never the price for more than 10 years star to rise price. It seems that they are using various ways to stimulate the rising of price.

It is not impossible that China will experience double-digit inflation in 2009. Although the writer think that this kind of development is temporary not the case that will be happen with the greatest possibility, the risk of emerging such case is increasing day buy day. It may be the biggest challenge China will face after the Olympic Games.

 

（本文原载于财讯月刊（台湾），为个人观点，并非投资建议或劝诱）